Subject: RE: [extropy-chat] Debate on Peak Oil

From: "Matus" <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 26 Apr 2005 23:02:20 -0400

> -----Original Message-----
> From: [email-masked] [mailto:extropy-chat-
> [email-masked]] On Behalf Of Samantha Atkins
> 
> I find the case for Peak Oil and quite soon compelling.  But whether
we
> are nearing the Peak rapidly or not is in a way irrelevant.   If most

Has any resource, ever, reached a peak and then declined while demand
continued to be at least consistent?  Ever?  Why all of the sudden are
we suggesting it will happen with Oil?  

This discussion ignores the fact that one can manufacture gasoline out
of a few dollars of electricity right from the carbon dioxide in the air
and hydrogen in the water.  And since nothing has the energy carrying
capacity that gasoline does (~13,000 Wh/kg) we will continue to use it
for decades, even if it ends up as the equivalent of a battery (used
primarily as energy storage and created with other electrical means,
solar or nuclear)

>From some googling 1 gallon of gasoline weighs around 6.8lbs (depending
on temp) which = 3.1kg.  So 1 gallon of gasoline contains roughly 39,000
Wh.  Which translates to 39 kWh.  Assuming electricity is 10c / kWhr,
that's $3.90 cents worth of electricity to create gasoline, assuming
process is 100% efficient.  With a more reasonable goal of 50%
efficiency, that's up to around $7.80 / gallon of synthetically
manufactured gasoline.  The price of electricity continues to decline in
real dollars.  With a more widespread use of nuclear and solar power,
the price of synthetic gasoline will clearly be less expensive than well
oil refined gasoline before any kind of devastating 'peak' hits. 

Electricity price -
http://www.open.ac.uk/T206/illustrations/t206b1c01f41.jpg

Matus

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From: Samantha Atkins <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 27 Apr 2005 13:59:32 -0700

> we suggesting it will happen with Oil?

Anything that exist in a fixed amount can in principle reach a Peak 
followed by decline in rpoduction.  Do you have some strange magic that 
makes more oil than is actually in the ground?  It is not "all of a 
sudden".

> and hydrogen in the water.

Hahahaha.  Show me how that is economical.

> The degree of denial here makes me utterly hopeless that human beings 
> are smart enough to continue much longer.  I am quite depressed.

- samantha