Subject: [extropy-chat] Molecular Manufacturing: Step by Step

From: "MIKE TREDER" <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 31 Mar 2005 17:08:01 -0500

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

Center for Responsible Nanotechnology
Chris Phoenix, Director of Research - [email-masked]
Mike Treder, Executive Director - [email-masked]

March 31, 2005

Molecular Manufacturing: Step by Step

Advanced nanotechnology -- molecular manufacturing -- will bring benefits 
and risks, both on an unprecedented scale. A new paper published by the 
Center for Responsible Nanotechnology suggests that development of molecular 
manufacturing can be an incremental process from today's capabilities, and 
may not be as distant as many believe.

"Molecular manufacturing has always had great promise, but as a single 
challenge, it has seemed intimidating. Breaking the problem down into stages 
shows that it can be achieved step by step," says Chris Phoenix, CRN’s 
Director of Research and author of the paper, "Developing Molecular 
Manufacturing."

Three stages for the development of molecular manufacturing, each with 
specific capabilities, are identified in the paper. The first stage is the 
computer-controlled fabrication of precise molecular structures. The second 
stage uses nanoscale tools to build more tools, enabling exponential growth 
of the manufacturing base. The third stage, which integrates nanoscale 
products into large structures, leads directly to desktop "nanofactories" 
that could build advanced products.

Distributed general-purpose manufacturing of high-performance products has 
many potential impacts. Production of weapons, various forms of vice, and 
intellectual property violations would be difficult to regulate. Clumsy 
regulatory attempts could create an intractable black market infrastructure. 
The easing of logistic constraints could have military implications, as 
could sudden advances in robotics and aerospace. If used widely enough, a 
shift in industrial use of raw materials and location of manufacture could 
affect resource production and international trade patterns.

On the positive side, large-scale use of inexpensive but highly 
sophisticated technology could quickly replace inefficient or missing 
infrastructure. Advanced components and materials could make space access 
cheaper and easier. Rapid prototyping and production of nanoscale devices 
could be a boon to medical research and health care.

Mike Treder, Executive Director of CRN, says, "Because both the risks and 
the benefits of molecular manufacturing are so great, and because it can be 
developed step-by-step from today’s technologies, it is urgent that we gain 
a better understanding of the timetable, the capabilities, and the actual 
implications."

Phoenix adds, "Although the most transformative and dangerous results rely 
on the most advanced stage of development, success in earlier stages could 
lead to surprisingly rapid development of the more advanced capabilities. 
There are several specific areas of study that can improve our understanding 
of the potential of molecular manufacturing. These studies can and should be 
initiated today."

This release is posted online at http://CRNano.org/PR-Developing.htm
The full research paper, "Developing Molecular Manufacturing," is available 
at http://CRNano.org/developing.htm

Other resources:
"What is Nanotechnology?" - http://www.crnano.org/whatis.htm
"What is Molecular Manufacturing?" - 
http://www.crnano.org/essays05.htm#2,Feb
"Bootstrapping a Nanofactory: From Fabricator to Finished Products" - 
http://www.crnano.org/bootstrap.htm
"Thirty Essential Nanotechnology Studies" - 
http://www.crnano.org/studies.htm

The Center for Responsible Nanotechnology (http://CRNano.org) is 
headquartered in New York. CRN is a non-profit think tank concerned with the 
major societal implications of advanced nanotechnology. We promote public 
awareness and education, and the crafting of effective policy to maximize 
benefits and reduce dangers. CRN is an affiliate of World Care, an 
international, non-profit, 501(c)(3) organization.

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From: [email-masked] ("Hal Finney")
Date: Thu, 31 Mar 2005 15:15:31 -0800 (PST)

Around here we tend to get a pretty one-sided view of the prospects
for nanotech.  I have found a good contrarian source to be Richard
Jones' blog, Soft Machines, <http://www.softmachines.org/wordpress/>.
(Of course, actually it is we who are the contrarians, Jones is presenting
the mainstream view but is unusual in that he is willing to address the
nanotech enthusiast community.)

In particular I recommend Jones' blog entry
http://www.softmachines.org/wordpress/index.php?p=93
summarizing his view of the state of play in the nanotech debate, and to
http://www.softmachines.org/wordpress/index.php?p=70 which includes a
debate between list member Chris Phoenix, Director of Research at the
Center for Responsible Nanotechnology, and Philip Moriarity, a physics
professor working in nanoscience research at the University of Nottingham.

Reading Jones' blog gives what I suspect is a more accurate picture
of mainstream academia's view of Drexlerism than Smalley's sometimes
shrill comments.  Jones does not agree with everything Smalley says,
but he presents a degree of bemusement at the popular enthusiasm for
nanomechanical designs that are utterly foreign to the directions being
pursued by nanoscientists.  He's not saying they won't work, but he
believes that they will ultimately be irrelevant, that we will achieve
similar power by very different means.  It would follow that trying to use
Drexler's approach as the basis of a "timeline to nanotech" is a strongly
misguided endeavor, as that is not the path which scientists are following.

I read both Jones' blog and of course that of CRN,
http://crnano.typepad.com/crnblog/.  The CRN one gets updated
almost every day, while Jones is more haphazard.  Howard Lovy's
http://nanobot.blogspot.com/ is more business oriented but I check it
occasionally as well.  Always try to read from a variety of sources
and perspectives!

Hal