Subject: [extropy-chat] Science and Fools (was: unidirectional thrust)

From: Robin Hanson <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 15 Mar 2005 19:19:18 -0500

At 03:11 PM 3/15/2005, Hal Finney wrote:
>In the end, I have to weigh the probabilities.  Which is more likely:
>that conventional science has made such a fundamental error, or that the
>community of "lifter" hobbyists is fooling themselves?  And I have to
>fall back on the position I have advocated before, which is to respect
>the conventional wisdom of science.  Yes, scientists make mistakes.
>But so do non-scientists!  And science has mechanisms for self-correction
>which simply aren't present in the hobbyist and enthusiast community.

I'm not at all sure "science" has better mechanisms than hobbyists.
Not sure "science" has much of a referent at all really.  "Established
academic experts" have mechanisms, ok, but not clear they are better.
Rather, I'd just emphasize the "established" descriptor.  If most people who
are widely acknowledged to be very expert on closely related topics reject a
position, well then all else equal that position is probably wrong.

But then comes the hard part: how can you ever justify disagreeing with
most established experts on a topic?  Like cryonics for example.  Of course
established experts make mistakes, but how can you ever know you've found one?

Robin Hanson  [email-masked]  http://hanson.gmu.edu
Assistant Professor of Economics, George Mason University
MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax VA 22030-4444
703-993-2326  FAX: 703-993-2323 

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